Inside The Isolator Playoff Hopes In Balance For Saints Bengals

What I Want to See … Seattle’s performance in Carolina. The Seahawks just dropped a 2nd straight game, and now must go on the road at 1 p.m. ET. Just two weeks ago, they were 95 percent likely to make the playoffs. Now, they sit at just 43 percent, per NFLproject.com. That is a huge drop and they have to get a win in Carolina. Fortunately for them, Carolina’s defense rolls out the welcome mat to opposing offenses. The Panthers are 29th in total defensive efficiency, 27th in EDSR* defense, 27th in red zone defense and 29th in 3rd down defense. Seattle’s defense is not playing like it did last year, and if Russell Wilson can’t put up points and the Seahawks lose, their chances to make the playoffs drop to 30 percent.

… How do the Bengals and Saints respond to their huge losses last week? Both of these teams opened as small home favorites to 5-2 opponents (Baltimore and Green Bay). Both are almost in must-win positions, and at NFLproject.com, we can visualize exactly how bad those losses hurt each team:

The Bengals offense was shutout, and their loss made them 33 percent less likely to make the playoffs and 30 percent less likely to win their division. Sitting currently at a slim 39 percent to win their division, if they lose to the Ravens, they drop to 26 percent to make the playoffs and 6 percent to win the AFC North. But a win would put them over 50 percent to make the playoffs. This game is the biggest of the week.

The Saints were covering easily over the Lions last week, but a boneheaded decision to pass the ball by the Saints cost them the win (but not the cover). Drew Brees has tried to tell the media Sunday’s date with the Packers is not a “must win” game. But we know differently, because we have access to NFLproject.com.

Even though the Falcons are terrible and the Panthers have plenty of issues as well, the Saints will drop to 14 percent likely to make the playoffs with a loss. This team has not lost a home primetime game in years. They must win this game at home. Not doing so would be a massive blow. Through eight weeks, the team would have two wins. That is hard to imagine, but entirely possible.

… The late game in the desert. I think this game, between Arizona and Philadelphia, features the two best offensive minds in the game. Chip Kelly and Bruce Arians have earned the respect they’ve been given. Their teams are 5-1 this season, and I cannot wait to see how Kelly comes off the bye week, and what Arians has in store for that Eagles defense. Even though both teams could afford a loss, surely both will be playing to improve to 6-1 and really lock down their playoff position.

What I Don’t Want to See … The Bears offense, after dysfunction and strife last Sunday, fail to perform vs. a Patriots defense which is injured and not playing well. Imagine this: in New England’s game last weekend vs. the Jets, one team recorded 28 first downs, converted 56 percent of 3rd down attempts, ran for 218 yards at 5.1 yards per carry, and led the NFL last week in time of possession, with 41 minutes. That team was NOT the Patriots. The lowly Jets, with offensive deficiencies galore, romped all over this Patriots defense, which is now without both Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones.

… The Tampa Bay defense get run over by the Vikings. The Vikings offense is dead last in total efficiency. It is 31st or worse in most of the advanced metrics. Yet the Bucs defense is so bad, the Vikings probably have some hope offensively in this game. Neither of these teams is going anywhere, but if the Bucs lose at home, off of a bye, the heat on Lovie Smith and the rest of this new coaching staff will be immense.

… The third down offense of the Bengals. Last week they were 1-of-13 vs. the Colts. Three weeks ago, they were 0-of-7 vs the Patriots. In between, they were 10-of-16 vs the Panthers (speaks to how bad the Carolina defense is). But the Ravens are the 9th best 3rd-down defense, so the 30th rated offense of the Bengals has its work cut out for itself. Here’s a trick to prevent punting so much: be more efficient on the early downs! The Bengals must avoid 3rd downs as much as possible, and call some more creative plays they can actually convert to keep drives alive!

What I Found … The Cowboys are 6-1, and 3-0 in one-score games. Meanwhile, the Saints are 2-4, but just 1-3 in one-score games. New Orleans could have a winning record right now if it just knew how to close out games. Unfortunately, they take on a team who knows how to win these close games: the Packers are 2-0 this year and just stole a win from the Dolphins last week in the final moments.

… Teams down by 7+ points after the 1st quarter and trail by 13+ at some point in the game are 3-71 SU/ATS the last 15 years on Monday Night if they don’t win the turnover battle by 2+ turnovers. But as the Steelers did on Monday Night, if they do win by 2+ turnovers, they are 4-0 SU/ATS.

… Philadelphia is -51.7 percent in red-zone offense efficiency over average this year (29th), -61 percent pass (30th) and -35 percent rush (29th). But even stranger, they are -96.2 percent in offensive DVOA (defense adjusted value over average) in “goal to go” situations, twice as bad as No. 31 (Pit @ 40 percent.

What the Custom Data Shows .. The largest EDSR edge this week is the Ravens over the Bengals. Baltimore is 3rd offensively and 9th defensively. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 17th offensively and a terrible 30th defensively.

… The largest “30-&-In” advantage is the Texans over the Titans. Houston ranks 14th offensively, while Tennessee ranks 27th. Defensively, the Texans actually rank No. 1, while the Titans rank 20th.

What’s on the checklist … Crucial divisional battles? Only one game is crucial for both teams: BAL @ CIN. … A team “up against a wall” needing to win at home? No doubt, Sunday Night: NO vs GB. … A battle of the worst teams this weekend? MIN @ TB

*Early Down Success Rate (EDSR) is a custom analytic created by Warren Sharp, which is both highly correlated to victory and as extremely predictive. It is an efficiency metric focused on a team’s ability to produce on first and second down offensively, and to limit production defensively (forcing an opponent into third downs).