Thanks for writing, Barbara. Popular votes do count–they determine the allocation of delegates. But they’re not always representative, especially in districts that award an even number of delegates.
Here’s why. In a four-delegate district, a candidate can win 54 to 46 in the popular vote and still only get half of the four delegates; 54 percent isn’t enough to reach the three-delegate threshold. Same goes for districts with six delegates. You need to win by a landslide in these even-numbered districts–say, 65 to 35–to get that extra, tie-breaking delegate. Which isn’t likely to happen very often in such a tight race.
All of which is to say: Obama and Clinton will probably split delegate count tonight. One might emerge with a slight lead. But neither will reach the 2,025 needed for the nomination or establish an insurmountable lead. So the popular vote might end up being the most important indicator, at least in terms of media coverage. I can imagine the candidate who racks up the most votes across the country claiming victory–and reporters treating such a claim as credible.
Still, the race will go on until either Obama or Clinton reaches 2,025, regardless of the popular vote. Tonight won’t be the end of anyone (at least on the Democratic side).
