France’s ratification of the Maastricht Treaty on monetary union and political cooperation turned out to have a divisive effect. The referendum’s close margin (51 percent to 49 percent) did nothing to dispel skepticism about European unity. Major immediately applied the brakes to Britain’s part of the Maastricht process, postponing Parliament’s approval of the treaty, probably until sometime next year. But French assent enabled Kohl and Mitterrand to push for unification, even as their governments struggled to maintain the franc’s crucial link to the brawny German mark in the foreign-exchange markets. Two days after the referendum they held one of their customary cozy little summits, from which Major, who currently chairs the EC Council, was excluded. “We both want the ratification of Maastricht; the process cannot be stopped,” Kohl said later. “The correct response to the present troubles is more Europe, not less Europe,” said Michel Sapin, Mitterrand’s finance minister.

The only nations really prepared for “more Europe” were Germany, France and the three small but economically sturdy countries located between them: Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. As long as they stand up to speculative pressure in the foreign-exchange markets, they can participate fully in the European monetary system, which requires their currencies to stay closely in line with each other. They may even be able to move on to a single currency and other forms of cooperation. Economically weaker members of the EC-Britain, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Ireland and Greece-may not qualify for full membership in the rich men’s club. “The most probable outcome is a two-speed Europe,” says Ireland’s Peter Sutherland, a former member of the European Commission, the Community’s executive body.

When the Community’s huge single market comes into being next Jan. 1, the treaty that was supposed to make it work smoothly will still be on hold. Major said Britain’s Parliament would not vote on Maastricht until Denmark, which rejected the treaty last June and is expected to vote again, makes its intentions clear. Compared with his predecessor, Margaret Thatcher, Major is a dedicated European. But with antiunification sentiment rising, he wants to reconsider both the monetary system and the Maastricht Treaty. He has called an EC summit for Oct. 16 “to take a profound look at where Europe is going.” While Britain is on the European sidelines, Major will aim for what one insider describes as “temporary Thatcherism,” keeping interest rates low to stimulate the economy and continuing to float the pound.

Kohl and Mitterrand have nothing against Major; they want Britain to be a full member of the new Europe. But they also want to move rapidly toward monetary union. As the Bundestag began its own consideration of Maastricht last week, Kohl warned that “standing still would be going backwards.” Mitterrand, whose domestic political status is as poor as his health (a diagnosis of prostate cancer was announced two weeks ago), is being pressed to resign before his term ends in 1995, and he wants to safeguard his place in history. “He arrived in power under the banner of socialism; he’ll leave it under the banner of Europe,” says Dominique Moisi, head ofthe French Institute of International Relations. Kohl denied that he and Mitterrand intend to form an inner circle, dumping Britain, Italy and the others onto the periphery of the EC. But Elisabeth Guigou, the French minister for European affairs, conceded that “a Europe of variable geometry” could be in the offing.

“We can’t just give in to the English all the time,” said Moisi. “The choice should be left to them: do you want to be confronted with a Franco-German directorate over Europe, or do you want to integrate?” Major wants to integrate. He warned Parliament last week that Britain must not become “a sour, isolated country off the mainland of Continental Europe.” He still appears to have a pro-European majority in the House of Commons. But at the moment, with his economy in recession and his currency in retreat, Major cannot afford the political dues he would have to pay to get into the rich men’s club.