Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim nation, was reminded again last week of the scope of the threat it faces. Police say Jemaah Islamiah likely carried out the bombing at Jakarta’s J.W. Marriott Hotel, a popular spot for Western visitors, businesspeople and U.S. Embassy functions. Preliminary forensic evidence has shown the bomb was similar in composition and design to those used in the group’s previous attacks, most notably the Bali bombings, which killed 202 people. Intelligence and diplomatic sources say the suicide bomber and two men who bought the minivan used in last week’s attack were identified as members of the terrorist outfit within 48 hours of the blast. “Jemaah Islamiah is the only organization in this region capable of carrying out an attack of this size,” says terrorism analyst Zachary Abuza.
Indonesian police had an idea that something might be afoot. Early last month they arrested nine people from separate Jemaah Islamiah cells in Semarang, central Java, and Jakarta, finding huge caches of bomb detonators, hundreds of pounds of explosives and weapons, and a list of dozens of potential target areas where hotels, shopping malls and Western entertainment areas are located–although no specific targets were named. NEWSWEEK has also learned that several Indonesian police officials were specifically targeted for assassination, and the Mega Kuningan district–where the Marriott hotel is located–was among the general locales marked for bombings. Authorities publicly lauded the busts at the time, but were privately terrified after the Semarang and Jakarta raids when they realized that 300 kilograms of explosives remained unaccounted for. Some of it has likely already been moved to other terrorist cells in Jakarta, according to diplomatic sources. Indonesian police, however, have been reluctant to release too much information too quickly, apparently out of fear of alienating the country’s vocal majority. Says police spokesman Basyir A. Barmawi, “We must be careful because of Muslims’ sensitivities.”
Jemaah Islamiah, which aims to create a Pan-Islamic state in the region, has made Indonesia its main base of operations, while using the southern Philippines for training camps and Malaysia and Singapore as sources of funding. The group is believed to have hundreds–if not thousands–of members operating across the archipelago, and individual cells probably carry overlapping target lists to maximize the chances of success. Experts think the Marriott bomb may be a template for the future. “The idea is to have a series of attacks rather than one big one like Bali,” says one security analyst in Jakarta.
Last week’s suicide bomber, Asmar Latin Sani, 28, of West Sumatra, was supposed to drive the minivan to the front doors of the Marriott lobby, in the center of the hotel’s horseshoe-shaped driveway. But sources told NEWSWEEK that the minivan was so laden with explosives that it was having trouble getting up the inclined driveway, and thus drew the attention of security guards. They approached the vehicle. Asmar is believed to have panicked, detonating the bomb prematurely with a cell phone that had been refitted as a remote control. Had the bomber made it to the lobby entrance, “we could have had an Oklahoma City,” says one Western diplomat.
Not that the damage from last week’s blasts will be limited to the Marriott alone. The economic ripple effects of terrorism have grown more serious since the Bali bombings. That attack has cost Indonesia more than $1 billion in lost tourism, as hundreds of thousands of visitors have been steering clear of the resort island since last October’s blasts. Foreign-direct-investment approvals dropped 35 percent, with multinationals skeptical of the country’s stability. But not all the news has been bad. “The Indonesian economy actually did better than a lot of us expected in the first six months,” says Richard Martin, managing director of International Market Assessment Asia. “The stock market was up almost 20 percent, the rupiah was strengthening, inflation was coming down and it was a particularly good market for bonds.” The key is what comes next. Says Bert Hofman, the World Bank’s chief economist in Jakarta, “The impact, if it stays with one incident, won’t be that big.”
That’s a very big “if.” Australian and U.S. officials are already warning about the possibility of additional attacks, perhaps timed to coincide with national independence celebrations on Aug. 17. While many suspect last week’s bombing was intentionally planned for the week an Indonesian court was to hand down its verdict on Amrozi, the first Bali bomber to go to trial, others fear it may be the opening shot to a greater spate of attacks. (Amrozi, 41, was sentenced to death last Thursday for his role in the Bali bombings.) Few people believe the country’s undermanned and ill-equipped national police will be able to prevent Jemaah Islamiah’s next strike, even with increasing assistance from Australia, the United States and others. Just before last week’s bombing, President Megawati Sukarnoputri, an avid gardener, vowed to “dismantle the terrorist network by its roots.” But it’s now clear these roots run deep.
