Hurricane Season Could Be Worse Than Expected With More Storms Than Previously Predicted

According to a news release from the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, forecasters are predicting that there will be 15 to 21 named storms, which are categorized as having wind speeds of 39 mph or greater, and seven to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater).

Of the seven to 10 possible hurricanes, the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting that three to five of them could become category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.

“NOAA scientists predict that the likelihood of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%. There is a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season,” NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in the news release.

Prior to the start of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season, in May, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicted that there would be 13 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes, indicating an increase in Wednesday’s update.

In May, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center also forecasted that there was a 60 percent chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season and a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season.

There have already been five named storms this season and the recent update notes that these storms are included in the mid-season outlook.

“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator, said in the release. “NOAA will continue to provide the science and services that are foundational to keeping communities prepared for any threatening storm.”

During a virtual webinar announcing the mid-season outlook, Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said “The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially extends from June through November and we are now entering the peak months of the season.”

Rosencrans also noted that Hurricane Elsa, which made landfall in Florida on July 7, was the earliest fifth named storm on record.

“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead,” Rosencrans added.

According to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, forecasters are not expecting Atlantic sea surface temperatures to be as high as they were in 2020, but they noted that “reduced vertical wind shear and an enhanced west Africa monsoon all contribute to the current conditions that can increase seasonal hurricane activity.”

In 2020, the U.S. experienced a historic Atlantic Hurricane Season, which included 30 named storms, the most since 2005.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center directed Newsweek to the virtual webinar after reaching out for comment.