Evacuation orders were placed Monday for certain at-risk areas in Tampa Bay and other areas further south along the west coast. Floridians are clearing out grocery shelves and preparing their home for storm impact. Several meteorologists have tweeted their concern, calling the storm the “near worst-case scenario” for the Tampa Bay area.
The storm’s path has grown increasingly “ominous” throughout the day, and the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 5 p.m. update didn’t ease any fears. Hurricane Ian, which was upgraded from a tropical storm this morning, has intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with winds reaching 100 mph. Forecasts show the storm could intensify immensely within the next three days, equipped with winds up to 140 mph.
Winds in a Category 2 hurricane can cause major roof and siding damage to well-constructed frame homes, and shallowly rooted trees will either be snapped or uprooted, according to NHC’s site. A Category 2 hurricane is capable of causing near-total power loss that could last weeks.
“Hurricane Center Director calls Hurricane Ian forecast ’near worst-case scenario’ for Tampa,” CNN anchor Ana Cabrera tweeted Monday afternoon.
Colin McCarthy, a news contributor studying atmospheric science, tweeted that forecasts predict Hurricane Ian impacting Tampa in the “absolute worst case scenario.” McCarthy tweeted that the hurricane was expected to land near Tampa at or near major hurricane status and then stall for more than 24 hours, potentially wreaking havoc on the area.
“This would bring cataclysmic surge, massive rain totals and subject the area to extreme wind damage,” McCarthy tweeted.
A staff report for the Herald-Tribune called the storm the “worst case scenario” for Sarasota-Manatee as well. Winds are expected to pick up Tuesday night and continue for several days in Sarasota and Manatee counties.
Manatee Schools announced the district would close all schools starting Tuesday so it could begin to offer shelters for the storm. Sarasota County officials called for a Level A evacuation, which is mostly waterfront homes and anyone who lives in a mobile home, boat or RV.
Tampa Bay area officials also began issuing evacuation orders Monday. Several colleges along Florida’s west coast, including University of South Florida and Ringling College of Art and Design, have canceled classes.
After a midday update from the NHC, the Herald-Tribune reported that Hurricane Ian could have a stronger impact on the area than any other hurricane in the recent history of storms. The report said the hurricane would likely be worse than Hurricane Charley, a Category 4 hurricane that hit the Florida southwest coast in 2004. Hurricane Charley killed 15 people, caused $16 billion in damage and left more than 1 million people without power, according to the Tampa Bay Times.
Dr. Rick Knabb, a hurricane expert at The Weather Channel, urged people in the high-risk zones to prepare for a different outcome with Hurricane Ian than with Hurricane Charley. Knabb tweeted that Hurricane Charely was “small and quick moving”, but that Hurricane Ian will move slower and possibly more parallel to the coast. Its trajectory could impact more people for days rather than hours.
Knabb also advised that those who were going to evacuate shouldn’t wait until evacuations were mandatory to do so.
“Farther you plan to go, sooner you should go, traffic backups [Tuesday] could be extreme,” he tweeted.
Newsweek reached out to the National Hurricane Center for comment.
