Ending months of relative obscurity, Perot is back. Two days after the GOP primary in Texas this week, he kicks off a drive to qualify his Reform Party for the ballot there. Next week he’ll appear on “Larry King Live,” his own private Iowa. Then he hits the noncampaign campaign trail to give speeches, including a major one in Philadelphia.
Powell wants no limelight, but isn’t out of the picture. The general, NEWSWEEK has learned, had a long chat three weeks ago with former president George Bush when they bumped into each other at the Orlando airport. The close friends spoke by phone two weeks ago. Powell’s aides insist the two did not broach a subject on nearly every political mind. Would Powell serve, if asked, as Dole’s running mate? Would he give up his comfortable private life to help the party lure crucial swing voters frightened by the religious right and Pat Buchanan’s pitchfork populism? Publicly and privately, Bush has been saying kind things about Dole, and could be just the man to broker a Dole-Powell ticket.
If life were fair, Dole would get time off to savor his primary triumph. “We’ve survived a near-death experience,” said Dole strategist Don Sipple. But as the senator moves closer to formally locking up the GOP prize, his next task isn’t targeting Bill Clinton. First, Dole must figure out how to reach the radical middle: voters who see the traditional political system itself as the country’s chief problem. To many of them, Powell is an apolitical hero – and Perot a useful tribune of anti-insider discontent.
The “angry voter” bloc remains an important one. Though Perot was battered by the press in 1992, three-way test matchups still show him with strong support – anywhere from 10 percent to 25 percent of the vote. Dole dreads a rerun by Perot, who plans to get his party on the ballot in all 50 states for the fall. Though Perot drew equally from Clinton and Bush in 1992, this time he would primarily siphon anti-Clinton votes from Dole. “If Perot gets in the race,” says a top Dole aide, “it will guarantee Clinton’s re-election.”
Dole isn’t popular among the Perotistas. An inside player, he’s been a Washington power seeker for 35 years. “He’s the embodiment of everything Perot voters dislike,” says analyst and author Kevin Phillips. In the Arizona primary, for example, Dole won 30 percent of the vote – but only 15 percent of those who backed Perot in ‘92.
The radical middle is particularly turned off by negative campaigning. That means Dole may have already exacerbated his problems by the way he’s run so far. NEWSWEEK has learned that the Dole team paid nearly $1 million to a firm that made telephone calls planting negative information about Dole’s rivals. At least one of these so-called “suppression phone banks” – designed to “suppress” an opponent’s vote – was operated out of Springfield, Ill., by a New York company called Campaign Tel Ltd. In the primaries, Dole phone banks zeroed in on Steve Forbes, Buchanan and Lamar Alexander. Last week Perot called the practice a “disgrace.”
In his own ranks, Dole created a bitterness that makes it harder for him to win over his two remaining GOP rivals. Dole’s tactics, Buchanan told NEWSWEEK, weren’t “part of the game, they’re over the line.” Forbes’s distaste for “Washington politicians,” learned at his father’s knee, has deepened during the campaign. Yet the Kansan will need Buchanan’s and Forbes’s backing – or at least their acquiescence – to win radical-middle voters. In fact, Dole might need Forbes’s help more. Forbes is actually more popular with Perotians than Buchanan, whose stridency on abortion and immigration scares many of them. “His views are not mine,” Perot said.
So far, Dole has been able to avoid taking many specific positions on the issues. He has succeeded largely by branding Buchanan an extremist and Forbes a wild-eyed flat-taxer. His main appeal was his solidity. Now, Dole’s aides acknowledge, he must begin sharply defining his stands. The Senate, they think, is the place to do that. Dole, they say, will remain majority leader at least until the GOP convention this August. His advisers are already meeting with Newt Gingrich’s staff to craft legislative strategy for the rest of this year.
But Dole faces a dilemma. To cement his own base in the GOP – and sell himself as an agent of change – Dole’s campaign aides think he must highlight differences with the president on welfare, taxes, crime and spending. No more seeking compromise with Clinton on a balanced budget. “No more hanging out at the White House trying to cut deals with Clinton,” vows one top campaign aide. Dole, they say, must run as a man who can deliver a real conservative agenda – and not let Clinton share the credit for half-a-loaf solutions that blur ideological lines. “We want Dole to be the man who promises to deliver the whole loaf,” said another top Dole campaign adviser. But “ending gridlock” is an obsession among dissatisfied voters. If Dole seems to be a self-interested obstructionist, he risks the wrath of people he desperately needs.
Even the vice presidential sweepstakes are affected by this calculus. Dole won’t make a choice for months, but it’s already clear that the usual criteria – geography, religion, gender – won’t be conclusive. This time, ticket balancing will require a whiff of outsiderhood. So the air is filled with trial balloons from the states. For now, they include Gov. John Engler of Michigan, former governor Carroll Campbell of South Carolina and Gov. George Voinovich of Ohio. Others will soon be added.
Then there’s Powell. He’s a Washingtonian. But because of his race and military background, he exudes a pristine, above-it-all aura. By all accounts, Powell is reluctant. “He’s not interested, period,” says a close friend, flatly. Maybe not. But Dole certainly is.
