NEWSWEEK: Were you surprised by Castro’s resignation? Brian Latell: No—didn’t surprise me. There were statements twice in December, and he said that he was not going to cling to power. I interpreted those statements to mean precisely what happened, that he was going to step aside. And if it was going to happen, it was going to have to coincide roughly with this Feb. 24 National Assembly business.

What does this say about his health? I think he’s in very, very terrible health, and that’s why he’s stepping aside. He’s gravely handicapped. He hasn’t been able to make a public appearance in 18 or 19 months. He hasn’t been able to make a speech. He’s had a number of opportunities during this period to give speeches at events where he’d have been revered and glorified, and he was unable to. Whether or not he’s on death’s door, I don’t think anyone outside a small circle in Cuba really knows.

How do you think his brother will run Cuba? Raul is fully in charge now. He is going to be running things in his own way, quite differently from Fidel’s style, which is, I think, going to be quite a relief to the Cuban people. He’s not going to be giving interminable speeches or prancing on the world stage, grandstanding the way Fidel always did. Raul projects himself as a human, not as some kind of a superhuman, the way Fidel liked to have himself portrayed. And I think the Cuban people are taking relief from that.

Do you think Fidel will keep writing those weekly pieces for the newspaper? Oh, they’re even more than weekly. It’s going to be interesting to see what the frequency will be once he doesn’t have the office of the presidency. But, yes, I think he’ll continue to pontificate.

Do you think this will result in any immediate policy changes in Cuba? In the United States? I don’t see anything significant happening in the bilateral relationship, but I do think Raul is intent on implementing significant reforms in the Cuban economy. He wants to make it more productive, less corrupt, so we’re going to be seeing changes there.

Anything specific? I think we’re going to see some market mechanisms introduced in agriculture. I think there may be some small service entities that will be allowed to function on a market basis. These are things that Fidel never would have approved, but I think Raul will.

How far do you think we are from an open U.S.-Cuban relationship? That’s impossible to predict, because it depends on variables in Washington, Miami and Cuba. I don’t think we’re going to see it in 2008. Beyond that, it’s very hard to say.

How is the opposition reacting to the news, both in and outside Cuba? What I’m sensing here in Miami so far is that people are fairly calm about it. I guess that’s true on the island, as well. People realize that it’s a very significant change that Fidel is gone, but Raul is going to be pretty similar, at least on the political side. Raul is not going to allow any political opening.

On Tuesday, the State Department called Raul “dictator lite.” Is that a fair assessment? Well, Fidel and Raul are dictators. They’ve never been subjected to a fair, democratic process.

How might this impact Cuban relations with other countries in Latin America? I’m not sure there’s going to be much change. Cubans are very dependant on the Venezuelans for financial support. But Raul is not interested in grandstanding in foreign policy. He’s not going to be going abroad or making a lot of speeches on foreign policy. He’s going to be devoting himself to solving problems in Cuba.

So it might change the relationship with Hugo Chávez? It could. It’s going to be tricky for Raul. Chávez is a very temperamental man.